Just a short while ago in mid 2022, this is what former Finance Minister Grant Robertson and incoming Vice Chancellor to Otago University told us about the economy, "We are forecast to reach an operating balance [budget] surplus in the 2024/25 financial year". We're starting that financial year and there is no surplus - not now, not on the horizon. The budget deficit for 2024/25 is on target to be a whopping (negative) $13 billion - even including the effects of the new Coalition's cuts. The previous government would argue their "surplus" was only ever an imaginary fictional forecast. But it was not a forecast. It wasn't even fiction. It was misinformation designed to help Labour win the 2023 election, in cahoots with the Treasury. The surplus was never realistic. As the NZ economy stagnated in 2023, Labour went on a massive bureaucratic hiring & spending spree, guaranteeing there would be no surplus in 2024/25. It is unlikely there will ever be a surplus, given present policy settings, as health spending soars due to population aging & birth rates plummet. Is VC Robertson telling Otago, as we speak, he will ensure the University will also achieve surplus within a couple of years? Good luck with the clever strategy of hiring former politicians as Vice Chancellors.
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